
                                          
                                          
                                          
                     E X P E R T   S Y S T E M   T O O L K I T
                     E X P E R T   S Y S T E M   T O O L K I T
                                          
		       Copyright 1992 Thinking Software,Inc.
                       Copyright 1992 Thinking Software,Inc.
                                          
                            KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING MANUAL
                            KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING MANUAL
                                          
                                      Contents
                                      ________
                                          
            I.     Introduction
            
            II.    Demos                                     (D)
            
            III.   Tutorial                                  (T)
            
            IV.    Choosing your Domain (or Expert Topic)
            
            V.     Preparing Queries and Goals               (1-8)
            
            VI.    Entering Queries                          (1)
            
            VII.   Entering Goals                            (5)
            
            VIII.  Entering your System Title & Author       (A)
            
            IX.    Describing your System                    (A)
            
            X.     Running Expert                            (E)
            
            XI.    Conclusion
            
            XII.   Country Kbase - A Multilevel Knowledgebase
            
            
            Appendix A. Structured Flowchart: BUILDING YOUR EXPERT
            
            Appendix B. The Main Menu
            
            Appendix C. Frequently asked questions
            
            Appendix D. Manager's Guide to Expert System Implementation




+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
INSTALLING TURBO EXPERT ON YOUR HARD DRIVE
Just insert disk in A: and type INSTALLC
All files and programs will be copied to C:\EXPERT
to start the program at the C:\EXPERT> prompt type TURBO
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++



            
            
                                   I. Introduction
            
                  The Expert System Toolkit presents, for the first
            time, a simple menu driven approach to generating your own
            rule-based backward chaining expert system.  When it is
            complete, your expert system will ask you (or the user of
            your system) a series of questions (QUERIES) to be answered
            on a scale of 0(No) to 10(Yes). At the conclusion of the
            consultation the Expert will draw a graph of the User's
            responses, and finally display the correct solution (GOAL).
            
                  Large scale expert systems with hundreds of queries
            and goals can be built, since the Knowledgebase is stored on
            its own separate disk.  In addition, you can build many
            expert systems: just use a separate disk to store the
            Knowledgebase for each.
            
                  You are strongly advised, however, to start by
            creating a small demo system, say with ten queries and four
            possible solutions, and test it, before moving on to larger
            projects.

            
                  Two notes of caution:
            1) NEVER REMOVE THE WRITE PROTECT TAB FROM YOUR TURBO EXPERT
            PROGRAM DISK.
            2) KEEP THE TURBO EXPERT PROGRAM DISK IN DRIVE A AT ALL
            TIMES.
                                  II. DEMOS
            
                  Hands on is the best way to learn, so two demos have
            been provided: BABY and COUNTRY.
            
                  BABY asks questions like -
                     "Is the baby dressed in pink?"
                     "Is the baby playing with a toy soldier?"
                     "Does the baby bark?"
                  and then concludes with one of these four solutions -
            
            1.  The baby is a boy.
            2.  The baby is a girl.
            3.  The baby is a puppy.
            4.  The baby is a kitten.
                  This example in no way demonstrates the reasoning
            power of the Expert.  It has been choosen for simplicity
            only.
            
                  Lets try it...............
            
            
                                     BABY DEMO
            
            1) PLACE THE TOOLKIT DISK IN DRIVE A.
            
            2) BOOT (CTL-ALT-DEL)
            
            3) WHEN THE MAIN MENU APPEARS TYPE 'D'.  WHEN THE KBASE
            MESSAGE APPEARS TYPE 'A'. (This Knowledgebase is small and
            is included on the Program Disk).
            
            4) SELECT (IN YOUR MIND) ONE OF THE FOUR GOALS ==>
               BOY, GIRL, PUPPY OR KITTEN.
            
            5) ENTER APPROPRIATE RESPONSES
               For example, if you are thinking of a BABY GIRL
               the response to "Is the baby wearing a dress?"
               would be 9 or 10 (Yes).
            
               The response to "Does the baby bark?" would
               be 0 (No).
            
            6) After the graph is displayed, notice that the correct
               solution is choosen by the Expert. You will then be
               returned to the main menu.
            
                                  COUNTRY DEMO
            
            
                  COUNTRY, the second demo, is a little more useful.  It
            will help you decide where to take your next vacation.
            
                  It also introduces the concept of Main Catagory
            Questions, which are used to narrow the range of
            consultation in a large Knowledgebase. We will come back to
            the COUNTRY Demo and the use of Main Catagory Questions to
            partition a large knowledgebase at the end of this manual.
            
            

            
            ============================================================
            NOTE TO USERS WITH DRIVE A AND DRIVE B -
            Put the Toolkit Disk in Drive A and the your Kbase Disk
            in Drive B.  When the message "INSERT KBASE DISK"
            appears, press B to continue.
            ============================================================
            NOTE TO USERS WITH DRIVE A ONLY -
            Put the Toolkit Disk in Drive A.
            When the message "INSERT KBASE DISK" appears
            remove Toolkit Disk, insert KBASE Disk and
            press A to continue. If you have a Harddisk, use C for your
            Kbase.
            ============================================================
               *NEVER REMOVE WRITE PROTECT TAB FROM TOOLKIT*
            
                                 III. TUTORIAL
            
            
            
                  Pressing 'T' on the Main Menu presents a series of
            Questions and Answers that summarize some of the main points
            in this manual. Press 'T' on your keyboard now and review
            the TUTORIAL for future reference.  They will be covered in
            greater detail in the following sections.
            
                                 IV. CHOOSING YOUR DOMAIN
            
            
            
                  Your EXPERT cannot be an expert in everything. You
            must choose a single subject to teach your Expert (using
            TEACHQ and TEACHG).  If you are an expert yourself in some
            particular field, you may choose to use this as your Expert
            Domain.  If not, you may know an expert you can interview,
            encoding his "rules of thumb" into Queries and Goals.  This
            process is known as knowledge engineering.
            
                  Here is a list of some possible Expert Domains under
            consideration or development at Thinking Software.  Feel
            free to try one, or perhaps reading the list will spark some
            of your own ideas:
            
            
            LIFESPAN - Estimates how long you will live, based on birth
            date, diet, exercise, smoking, etc.
            
            PEDIATRICIAN - Asks for your child's symptoms, then gives
            diagnosis and recommends simple home remedies or a trip to
            your Doctor.
            
            
            EUROPEAN VACATION EXPERT - Asks various questions to
            identify what country you are thinking of visiting.
            
            COMPUTER HELPER - Asks quesions to solve various hardware
            and software problems on your computer.
            
            LIFEPLANNER - Helps with long range planning in the areas of
            health, wealth, career development, learning and creativity.
            
            CHINESE MEDICINE EXPERT - Attempts a Chinese diagnosis of
            your illness, with some indication of the Western
            interpretation.
            


            CASH MANAGEMENT EXPERT - Assists with the Cash Management
            Function in the Treasury Department of a large Corporation.
            
            
                        V. PREPARING QUERIES AND GOALS
                 It is advisable to carefully prepare your Queries and
            Goals on the Worksheets before turning on your computer.  A
            little patience and work now will save you a lot of grief
            and debugging later.
                  Start simple, say with 10 Queries and 4 Goals. You
            will be able to add more later to expand your Expert.
                 There is a set of Worksheets at the back of this
            Manual for you to photocopy and use. Lets use the worksheets
            to recreate the demo BABY.  This is how BABY was set up on
            the Worksheets:
            
                             A. QUERY WORKSHEET
            
            QUERY#                Q U E R Y
            
            1.        Is the baby dressed in blue?
            2.        Is the baby wearing a dress?
            3.        Does the baby bark?
            4.        Is the baby dressed in pink?
            5.        Is the baby playing with a doll?
            6.        Does the baby have a tail?
            7.        Is the baby covered with fur?
            8.        Does the baby have a pink hair ribbon?
            9.        Does the baby purr?
            10.       Is the baby playing with a toy soldier?
            
               Queries should be numbered sequentially.  The Query can
            contain up to 128 characters inluding spaces and ususally
            ends in a question mark.  A Query will be answered on a
            scale of 0(no) to 10(yes).  An answer of 5, by the way,
            means MAYBE or NOT SURE.
            
                                 B. GOAL WORKSHEET I
            
            
            GOAL#          M A S T E R   G O A L   L I S T I N G
            
            1.             The baby is a boy.
            2.             The baby is a girl.
            3.             The baby is a kitten.
            4.             The baby is a puppy.
            
                 Goals do not require numbers to be entered into the
            computer, but as your system grows, they will be useful to
            you.  Goals can contain up to 256 characters including
            spaces.  They usually end in a period, but no punctuation is
            required.
            
            
                 Goals can form discrete catagories but not a continuum.
            The above MASTER GOAL LISTING represents discrete
            catagories.
            
            
            
                               C. GOAL WORKSHEET II
            
            
            
            G O A L:      The baby is a boy.                 G O A L # 1
            ------------------------------------------------------------

            
            QUERY#        PROBABILITY TRUE
            ------        ----------------
            1.                 ----
            2.                 ----
            3.                 ----
            4.                 ----
            5.                 ----
            6.                 ----
            7.                 ----
            8.                 ----
            9.                 ----
            10.                ----
            
            
                 Now it is time to link your Queries to your Goals using
            Goal Worksheet II.  This is the critical step that gives
            your Expert his intelligence.  Here is how to do it:
            
            a) Use a separate Goal Worksheet II for each Goal.
            b) Write one Goal and its Goal# at the top of each
            Worksheet.
            c) Stack your Goal Worksheets II in sequence. Put your Query
            Worksheet in easy sight....you will be refering to it as you
            enter the probabilities.
            d) Probability True is entered for each Query# on a scale of
            0(No) to 100(Yes).
            
            
                  Lets try an example:
                                 D. ENTERING PROBABILITIES
            
            
                 Lets look at the first Goal as it relates to the first
            Query.  We are going to enter a probability to link Goal#1
            (THE BABY IS A BOY) to Query#1 (IS THE BABY DRESSED IN
            BLUE?).
            
                 What would you think the probability is that THE BABY
            IS A BOY if THE BABY IS DRESSED IN BLUE?
            
                 Pretty high probability, right? (Boy babies are often
            dressed in blue, especially as compared to girls, kittens
            and puppies.)
            
                 So lets enter 95.
            
            
                               C. GOAL WORKSHEET II
            
            
            
            G O A L:      The baby is a boy.                 G O A L # 1
            
            ------------------------------------------------------------
            QUERY#        PROBABILITY TRUE
            ------        ----------------
            1.                 -95-     <==================
            2.                 ----
            3.                 ----
            4.                 ----
            5.                 ----
            6.                 ----
            7.                 ----
            8.                 ----
            9.                 ----

            10.                ----
            
            
            
            
                 Now lets try linking Query#2 (IS THE BABY WEARING A
            DRESS?) to the same Goal.
            
                 What would you think that the probability is that THE
            BABY IS A BOY if THE BABY IS WEARING A DRESS?
            
                 Pretty low probability, right?  (Very few parents would
            ever put a dress on their little boy!)
            
                 So lets enter a 5.
            
                               C. GOAL WORKSHEET II
            
            
            
            G O A L:      The baby is a boy.                 G O A L # 1
            ------------------------------------------------------------
            
            QUERY#        PROBABILITY TRUE
            ------        ----------------
            1.                 -95-
            2.                 -05-      <========================= *
            3.                 ----
            4.                 ----
            5.                 ----
            6.                 ----
            7.                 ----
            8.                 ----
            9.                 ----
            10.                ----
            
              *NOTE: In reality, we would never enter such a low
            probability.  Turbo Expert works on Positive Probabilities
            only. There is rarely any reason to enter a Probability
            under 30. Simply ommiting the link is exactly equivilent to
            entering a probability of zero.
            
                   For each new Goal, you are required to go back and
            evaluate all of your Queries.  At first, this might seem
            like a lot of work, but after a little practice with the
            LEARNG online screen, you will see it is really quite fast
            and easy.  However, for your first project, please complete
            one Goal Worksheet II for each Goal.
            
                  Try to use probabilities in the range of 30 to 99,
            reserving 00(ABSOLOUTE NO) and 100(ABSOLUTE YES) for special
            cases.
            
            
                  Here is a complete set of worksheets for BABY,
            including the Query Worksheet, the Goal Worksheet I,
            and four Goal Worksheets II (one for each Goal). If you
            like, you could try entering BABY onto your own Kbase Disk.
            
                             A. QUERY WORKSHEET
            
            QUERY#                Q U E R Y
            
            1.        Is the baby dressed in blue?
            2.        Is the baby wearing a dress?
            3.        Does the baby bark?

            4.        Is the baby dressed in pink?
            5.        Is the baby playing with a doll?
            6.        Does the baby have a tail?
            7.        Is the baby covered with fur?
            8.        Does the baby have a pink hair ribbon?
            9.        Does the baby purr?
            10.       Is the baby playing with a toy soldier?
            
            
            
            
                                 B. GOAL WORKSHEET I
            
            
            GOAL#          M A S T E R   G O A L   L I S T I N G
            
            1.             The baby is a boy.
            2.             The baby is a girl.
            3.             The baby is a kitten.
            4.             The baby is a puppy.
            
            
            
                               C. GOAL WORKSHEET II
            
            
            
            G O A L:      The baby is a boy.                 G O A L # 1
            ------------------------------------------------------------
            
            QUERY#        PROBABILITY TRUE
            ------        ----------------
            1.                 -95-
            2.                 -05- (as noted, this link can be omitted)
            5.                 -30-
            10.                -95-
            
                               D. GOAL WORKSHEET II
            
            
            
            G O A L:      The baby is a girl.                G O A L # 2
            ------------------------------------------------------------
            
            QUERY#        PROBABILITY TRUE
            ------        ----------------
            2.                 -95-
            4.                 -85-
            5.                 -80-
            8.                 -95-
            
                               E. GOAL WORKSHEET II
            
            
            
            G O A L:      The baby is a kitten.              G O A L # 3
            ------------------------------------------------------------
            
            QUERY#        PROBABILITY TRUE
            ------        ----------------
            6.                 -80-
            7.                 -85-
            9.                 -95-
            
                               F. GOAL WORKSHEET II
            

            
            
            G O A L:      The baby is a puppy.               G O A L # 4
            ------------------------------------------------------------
            
            QUERY#        PROBABILITY TRUE
            ------        ----------------
            3.                 -95-
            6.                 -80-
            7.                 -85-
            
                             VI.  ENTERING QUERIES
                 Most of the work is done, and now the fun part of
            actually building your own Knowledgebase begins.
            
            
            1. Use FORMAT to initialize a fresh disk. Use a high quality
            disk.....it is going to go through a lot of reading and
            writing as you give your Expert his intelligence.
            
            2. Label your disk KBASE or KNOWLEDGEBASE + "Your Expert
            Title".
            
            3. Place Turbo Expert in Drive A and Boot.
            
            4. When the Main Menu appears, press 1, the TEACHQ option.
            
            5. You will be asked to insert your fresh KBASE disk.
            After you have done that, press the DRIVE# of the KBASE disk
            to continue.
            
            6. Enter the Queries in sequence from your Query Worksheet.
            Do not enter the Query# - TEACHQ will automatically number
            your Queries.
            
            7. After typing the last Query, just press enter to return
            to the main menu.
            
            
            8. Use LOOKQ to Look at your Queries. If you have made a
            minor spelling error, use CHANGEQ to correct it.
            
            9. If you want to start over for any reason, just EXIT,
            FORMAT your KBASE disk again, and return to step 3 above.
            
                                      VII. ENTERING GOALS
            
                 Your goals go on the same KBASE disk.  Goal Worksheet I
            is not used.....take your Goal Worksheets II (stacked in
            sequence) to the computer.
            
            1. Place Turbo Expert in Drive A and Boot.
            
            2. When the Main Menu appears, press 5, the TEACHG option.
            
            3. You will be instructed to insert the Kbase disk. Press
            the Drive Letter when ready.
            
            4. Type the Goal from your first Worksheet II. Do not type
            the Goal#, it is not required.
            
            5.Enter the first Query# from your Worksheet.  Your first
            Query will appear on the screen. Enter the probability true
            from the top of the probability column on your Worksheet,
            and press enter.  TEACHG will take you through all your


            Queries....give each the probabilty from your
            worksheet....and press enter.  After the last Query,
            enter 999.  TEACHG will request your next Goal.
            
            6. When you have no more Goals to enter, type EXIT at the
            Goal prompt.  You will return to the Main Menu.
            
            7. The last required step before you can test your Expert
            System is to enter Title/Author/Description - please see the
            next two sections.
            
            8. Type 'E' to RUN YOUR EXPERT!
            
            
                               VIII. ENTER TITLE/AUTHOR
            
                  A nice finishing touch is to add the title and author
            name to your Expert.  Press 'A' on the Main Menu to access
            this option. First enter the Title for your Expert (up to 50
            characters) and press enter.  Then enter the Author's Name,
            and press enter again.  The Title and Author will be stored
            on the Kbase Disk, and will be displayed first, each time
            you run EXPERT.
            
            
            
            
                                     IX. DOCUMENTING YOUR SYSTEM
            
                 Use this option to add a few sentences of explanation
            aimed at the User. This description will be displayed each
            time you run EXPERT, immediately after the Author Name.
            
                 Type 'A' at the Main Menu to Document your Expert.
            
                 There is room for about one screenful of data.
            
            
            
                                 X. RUNNING EXPERT
            
            
                  To run Expert, just type 'E'.
            
            
                  You will be instructed to insert the Kbase Disk and
            enter the drive number.  The Title, Author and Documentation
            will be displayed long enough to read.
            
                  The Expert will present your Queries, and request a
            response from 0(No) to 10(Yes).  Remember that 5 can be used
            to mean MAYBE or NOT SURE.  The Expert will always ask the
            Query that has the maximum chance of speeding the solution.
            
                  When the Expert has decided, it will present its
            solution.  We have never seen the Expert make a mistake if
            the Queries, Goals and Probabilities were entered correctly.
            XI. CONCLUSION
            
                  You have experienced the thrill of giving a computer
            system true intelligence, and may now want to try building
            an Expert System in another Domain, or expanding and
            refining your first Expert System.
            
                  We at Thinking Software are interested in what you
            have achieved, and will be glad to evaluate any Kbase disk

            sent to us for possible commercial potential. Please send
            only a copy of your Kbase, along with a letter describing
            your Expert System.  Please include a self addressed stamped
            envelope if you want your disk returned.
            
                  Do you prefer to market your own Expert System? You
            will need the Run Time Disk and a License Agreement. There
            is a small royalty payment required to market an Expert
            System created with the Toolkit. Please send a SASE for
            details.  Other technical questions?  Please write...do not
            phone....and include a SASE. We will respond promptly.
            
                 Good luck......and keep coding......
            
            
                       XII. COUNTRY KBASE - A Multilevel Knowledgebase
            
            
                 As your Knowledgebase begins to grow beyond 100
            Queries, you may find that the user must answer too many
            seemingly unrelated Queries before he reaches the correct
            solution.  The cure for this problem is to partition your
            knowledgebase, turning it into a Multilevel Kbase.  The
            basic idea is to first ask some MAIN CATAGORY QUESTIONS, as
            demonstrated in the Executive Health Expert.  All these
            questions will be asked, but a YES answer to one of them
            will guide the Expert in only asking Queries relevant to
            this MAIN CATAGORY for the rest of the consultation.  This
            can dramatically speed the consultation, and makes your
            Expert seem much more intelligent.  Once told that the user
            is mainly interested in Heart Problems, he will no longer
            find it necessary to ask "Is your skin unusually yellow in
            color?"
                  The Sample Kbase used to present ths concept is called
            COUNTRY, and will choose the best place for you to take your
            next vacation.  We will also use this example to show you a
            faster way to write down your Kbase, without using any
            worksheets at all!  An ordinary notebook with lined paper is
            all that is required.
            
            1. Write your Kbase Title/Author and Description on page one
            of your notebook:
            
            TITLE: European Vacation Country Expert
            AUTHOR: Thinking Software
            DESCRIPTION: Think of a Country you would like to visit on
            your next vacation....almost any country....as long as it is
            in Europe or South America.   The Expert will ask you a
            series of questions...answer 0(NO) to 10(YES) as honestly
            and accurately as you possibly can.  Use 5 for "not sure" or
            "maybe".  Then the Expert will tell you the name of the
            country.
            
            2. Write your MAIN CATAGORY questions on page two of your
            notebook:
                      1. Is the country in Europe?
                      2. Is the country in South America?
            
            3. Write your GOALS beginning on page three of your
            notebook. The Format is
                              GOAL
                              MAIN CATAGORY QUERY
                              DETAIL QUERIES
            In many ways, this is similiar to Goal Worksheet II. Lets
            try just a few examples from COUNTRY:
            

            GOAL 1: The country is France.
            MAIN CATAGORY QUERY: Is the country in Europe?
             (Probability 70)
             DETAIL QUERY: Is this country famous for its fine wines?
            (Probability 95)
            -----------------------------------------------------------
            GOAL 2: The country is Ireland.
            MAIN CATAGORY QUERY: Is the country in Europe?
            DETAIL QUERY: Is this country identified with the color
            Green?
            ----------------------------------------------------------
            GOAL 3: The country is Brazil.
            MAIN CATAGORY QUERY: Is the country in South America?
            DETAIL QUERY: Is this country famous for its tropical
            beaches?
            ---------------------------------------------------------
            GOAL 4: The country is Equador.
            MAIN CATAGORY QUERY: Is the country in South America?
            DETAIL QUERY: Is this country on the equator?
            --------------------------------------------------------
            Try entering this simple little Kbase using Turbo Expert.
            You will find that the MAIN CATAGORY Queries are asked
            first, because they are linked to more Goals than the Detail
            Queries.  In addition, after one of the MAIN CATAGORY
            Queries is answered "YES", only the appropriate DETAIL
            QUERIES will be asked.  This can be very important in a
            large complex Knowledgebase.
            
            
            
            
                                  FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
                                  __________________________
            
            Q. Why do I have to keep switching disks?
            
            A. The Toolkit Disk is quite full, and there are not enough
            sectors left to store a full Knowledgebase.  If you have two
            drives, no disk switching is required. Just leave the
            Toolkit Disk in Drive A and the Kbase Disk in Drive B (or
            build your Kbase on C).
            
            
            Q. I don't want to photocopy or fill out the worksheets. Why
            can't I just enter my Queries and Goals directly into the
            TEACHQ and TEACHG screens?
            
            A. The worksheets are only provided for your benefit.
            Building a good Knowledgebase requires careful planning and
            thought.  Perhaps you will be acting as a knowledge
            engineer, and interviewing an expert in his office or home.
            Worksheets are easier to carry than a computer system.
            
            
            Q. How many Queries and Goals will fit on one Disk?
            
            A. You have room for about 200 Goals, 280 Queries and 30
            linked rules per Goal for a grand total of 6000 Rules per
            Knowledgebase. A much larger inference engine is in the
            planning stages.
            
            
            Q. Can I speed up the system with a Turbo Board or 8
            Megahertz At or 12 Megahertz clone?
            
            

            A. Yes, if your system can take it......your system will
            automatically be reset to normal speed  for disk
            writes.....to avoid a garbled Kbase.  However, we
            advise frequent backups of your Kbase...this is a reasonable
            precaution with any disk that has very frequent access.
            
            Q. I have thirty queries already entered using TEACHQ, but
            only four or five of them apply to each goal. Can I skip the
            others when running TEACHG to link?
            
            A. Definitely - this is one of the best techniques for
            building a fast knowledgebase.  As a rule, it is never
            neccessary to link Queries with a low probability.
            
            Q. My queries are on the Kbase Disk, but somehow I
            messed up in the middle of entering my goals. What
            should I do?
            
            A. No problem - just place the Kbase Disk in Drive A,
            and type "DEL KBASEA".  Your goals will be
            erased, but your queries will remain on the disk.
            Now repeat TEACHG from the beginning.
            
            
                MANAGER'S GUIDE TO EXPERT SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION
            
            
            1. Choose a useful problem in your organization that can be
            narrowly defined.  It is better to start small and simple
            and succeed, than to start with a huge complex Kbase and
            make a mess. Remember KISS: Keep it simple, stupid.
            
            2. Choose the right tools. We naturally recommend Turbo
            Expert Level I.
            
            
            3. Get the assistance you need.  Excellent consultants are
            available, or perhaps an inhouse programmer can help with
            the actual keying of Goals, Queries and Probabilities.
            Thinking Software, on rare occasions, will act as
            consultants for a major corporation with a critically
            important well defined Expert System. And we will of course
            answer all writen requests for technical information from
            owners of Level 1 or Level 2.
            
            
            4. Build a Simple Demonstration System.  Start with ten
            queries and four goals. It's the quickest way to determine
            if the problem you selected is a proper candidate for an
            Expert System. Its the best way to educate your human
            Experts, who are contributing their knowledge, and to
            increase their enthusiasm and input to the project.
            
            
            5. Set a realistic time schedule:
            
                     PROBLEM SELECTION: One to two months.
            
                     TOOL SELECTION: Under one month.
            
                     DEMO SYSTEM: One to two months.
            
                     COMPLETED EXPERT SYSTEM: Six months to one year.
            
            
            6. Measure, disclose and publicise your positive results.

            
             The company that has funded your efforts has a right to
            know if Expert Systems will be beneficial.
            
            In many cases, the answer is "yes".  The advantage of
            introducing the first working Expert System into your
            organization is that you will then be considered the AI
            Expert, to be consulted or to head up all future projects.
            The risks are small, the rewards are potentially enormous,
            the time is now.
























































